WE ARE BACK!!!!!!! Kentucky Derby Day is upon us, FINALLY! We had a wonderful day yesterday… all kinds of doubles, exactas, tris, Pick3’s and the only thing that really didnt pan out was the BEST BET who completely missed the break in a baby race. A loaded, tough, nearly impossible card is upon us. Capped with the Kentucky Derby where Tiz the Law will take his shot at the second leg of the Triple Crown!!! Wait no more… lets dive in!!!
Race 1-
I am not going to spend my time giving a selection for this race. For those who are going to play the Pick5, the #1 Home Base could be a single for a lot of people. Loves the distance and is in the best form of the American runners. #4 Midnight Sands could be the surprise. I wasnt able to see backtracks on this runner but is a winner of 5 in a row and will get lasix for the first time. Of course #2 Seven Trumpets is a CD master… 5-4-0-0, not his favorite distance but perhaps just a return to CD does the trick. #3 Bourbon Resolution is prolly overmatched. I dont know if the cutback is just gonna do the trick for him but in a 5 horse race, you never know. #5 Hog Creek Hustle loves distance and track, has back class as well to compete in here.
** Do what you want with this. Any of them can win. I guess I’d give the nod to the #1 Home Base but thats just because I wanna be on record making a ‘Top Pick’
Race 2-
#5 Idol 5/1: FTS here for Baltas who is nominated for the TC trail but finally debuts in this interesting spot. Baltas has his entire barn out at Del Mar, where this one has been training but was never seen during the Del Mar meet. I’m not sure if this was the plan, if they needed an extra week or two with him but is extremely live in this spot here. Purchased for 375k at the KEE sale in 2018, this Curlin prodigy had a wonderful work on 8/28 in prep for this event here… 5f :59.4 over this CD surface. Gets aggressive jockey, Paco Lopez, in the irons today which will be important in getting this one involved early. Baltas is only 9% with first time starters but against this small group of 7 runners, I like the spot this one is in. NOTE: Dam has a really nice win early pedigree and needs to be noted.
#1 Thrill Ride 5/2: The runner who will get grossly overplayed here comes as my second choice. The debut was… something. Thats really all I can come up with. Prior to that effort, horse was working extremely well in the AM which included a gate work 4f :47.9. What happened at the break is just unexplainable but this horse ran down a pace that broke down but went from 11 off the lead to only getting beat by 2 1/2 lengths. These type of efforts typically get cappers excited, knowing with a clean break, this one will be tough off this short layoff. Wilkes has kept this one at KEE and the work on 8/27, 5f 1:00.3 was pretty impressive. In this work, he was a little luggish to start but man, once he gets focused, he can really motor. I dont love this runner but is a MUST USE in multi race sequences. NOTE: Wilkes is 16% off these type of layoffs and actually had a winner off similar layoff on Wednesday.
Race 3-
#9 Speightstown Again 5/1: A nice colt here for Kenny McPeek who was purchased for 675k in the KEE sale. Has struggled to break his maiden but running a top speed figure off the shelf gives me the thought that another improve will be in store here which would make him more then just competitive in here. Kenny is 21% when moving runners from sprint to route, 15% 2nd off the layoff and if there has been a combo hotter then McPeek/BHJ, I’d like to know who that is. They are only hitting at a 48% clip over last 60 days with a +$3.51 ROI. Biggest key is the fact, while being parked outside, you get away from that dead rail of yesterday and with more speed inside him, you can follow that one and get a good, clean trip in here.
#7 Dynacharge 9/2: First time gelding here for Dallas Stewart seems to be well spotted in here. A runner who will come from off the pace, in a race that does have a decent amount of speed signed on, has improved each and every start of career. Debut was a 66, then only start at CD received a 78 while running 2nd in a 75k MCl race and LTO, got an 84 speed figure in a MSW at KEE. Has been working extremely well in the AM and has ran well off a nice size layoff before so we know that wont be the issue. I like the fact that Stewart keeps up Talamo who has ridden this gelding in his previous two starts. Horse likes CD, is a first time gelding so should be more keen, has proven can take care of the distance and keeps common jock up. Lots to like here.
#1 Storm King 6/1: I’m chalking debut up to two things… Robby Albarado rode this one AND the track was muddy and when I say muddy, I mean a soupfest. Horse isnt flashy in the mornings but has been a level of consistency. Asmussen with horses in their 2nd lifetime race he is 21%, 16% when having a runner move from sprint to route and of course he puts up his man, Ricardo in the irons today. Classic angle… speed and fade going shorter, now stretches out for the first time. Should be pretty tough in here if fresh.
Race 4-
#11 Rye Sense of Humor 6/1: BIG… BIG… single here in the 4th leg of the Pick5. I love this Wilkes runner who gets parked outside and has more front end speed then what the PP’s will tell you. If you watch debut back, horse gets nearly taken out and was dropped back. From there, Julien got this horse up for 2nd while having to go wide down the lane as well. Needless to say, I think there are loads of excuses for this one and I’m going to capitalize in this wide open event with a horse who will be a very solid price in here. 6/1 ML and I think we will get all of that today. NOTE: A nice bullet work on 9/2, at CD, 4f :49 flat in the slop. Horse who had all the trouble in debut, still ran on well, keeps same jock, working well over track and Wilkes much better 2nd time out… a lot to like here.
Race 5-
#10 Parkland 5/1: I’m not sure how they came up with this ML but whatever. Either way, a horse for Vaccarezza who, once moved over to the turf in his 2nd career start, showed more promise then anybody couldve imagined. You’ve seen a steady uptick in speed figures with each start (78,88,95) and there is no reason to think that he cant improve once more here. I like the fact that he has some tactical speed while drawing outside and has proven to think this longer distance on the turf by breaking his maiden LTO at this distance. Doesnt hurt when you are putting up the hottest jockey on the planet in Florent Geroux who I think had 5 wins yesterday and a 2nd place finish. He’s pushing all the right buttons right now and he’s had success previously with Vaccarezza showing a +ROI. Horse has been training lights out in the AM, you can see that by all the bullets this one has put up. Will be ready to roll off that maiden score here and another repeat of speed figure or any sort of improve makes him the one to beat!
#5 Spanish Kingdom 3/1: I hate to eat the chalk but here we are. This runner for Sharp has improved in accordance to speed figures in his last three starts which includes a win over this specific turf course. That 84 speed figure that day will need to improve if he wants to compete with some of the other runners but the level of consistency goes unmatched. It doesnt hurt that LTO, this runner nearly hit the board in a G3 at KEE at BOMBER odds. Has class, tactical pace, working lights out and a jockey who had MULTIPLE options in here sticks with this one. Will be a short price!
#2 Handy 30/1: I really think this horse can run here. Finally broke the maiden LTO while being in the barn of Vance for the first time. Takes an extreme hike in class here but does have some previous MSW events that were quite good and competitive where horse finished well. Second time with the barn, will try a different surface and will be part of the pace scenario today. Decky Cannon loves to get these bombs home and I’m sure this is one he knows is live! NOTE: A key race for this runner was the effort at FG. In that field, there were two next out winners and one ended up winning a non graded stakes race. Ran well that day so I think this horse has more class then what people think.
Race 6-
#8 Verb 10/1: It’s all about Verb for me in here. A horse who has some back class with the placing in the Bashord Manor here at CD back in June of last year, will be one of the pace factors on the front end today. I really like not only the running style but the fact that we get to see him sprint once again after the maiden score LTO. With a horse who hasnt finished worse then 3rd EVER in his career, sometimes it just takes that first one and then they reel off a couple winners in a row. The 88 speed figure is ok, will need to improve off of that but I do believe that is what is in store today. A nice set of 5f drills, none of them extremely fast, is a STAPLE of Desormeaux. Keeps Murrill in the irons today in a WIDE OPEN event here. NOTE: This is one of the few runners that has had more then one race here at CD, this runner is 3-1-0-2 lifetime. Loves the track, should relish the distance and should be extremely tough in this spot here. Pick.
#3 Coastal Defense 8/1: This colt for Romans will get hit square in the eyes at this 7/8ths distance today. A runner who just ran a career top off the shelf, now 2nd off the layoff, with prior success at CD, will be looking to score in this class hike. Another runner who has been working lights out, which includes a bullet, 4f :47.3 on 8/23. No question that this one will have the right running style in here. There is an abundance of speed lined up and this one does his best running while taken just off the pace. He could be leading that 2nd pack of runners to take the first shots at the leaders when they turn for home. Horse will be tough.
#2 Sir Alfred James 5/1: Our best bet on June13 when he broke his maiden in start number 1 at a nice price. I cant explain the tactics of Stall who put this one on grass after what he saw in debut on dirt BUT it was a successful trip as horse finished 2nd, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths that day at Saratoga. Not only does horse get back to the main track today, but returns to CD where he broke his maiden in fine fashion. Stall puts his guy, Colby Hernandez in the irons who has been lost early on in this meet. The extra distance concerns me just a little bit and thats why I have him in the 3rd spot but if 7/8ths isnt a big deal, look out. This horse has A LOT of talent.
Race 7-
#11 Savvy 12/1: I love this spot here for Savvy who is a lightly raced, 4yo gelding for Wilkes that just tries so hard each and every time he hits the track. A winner of two in a row, beating a group of AOC25k runners at Elp on 8/8 LTO, I can see another improve being in store and snagging the money at a nice price here. Interesting to note that in all three races lifetime at CD, this runner has been in ALL SORTS of trouble and I dont believe has ever had his fair shake. Will be parked outside for this event which shouldnt be an issue as he will do most of his running quite late. We do see a switch from BHJ to Franco but I dont think its that major of a deal. NOTE: Classic Wilkes at work here in the morning… has a really really nice 5f drill in 1:00 flat and then comes back, last work prior to start and runs the slowest 4f drill you’ll ever see. This is very common practice for him and tells me he’s live!!!
#10 Bodexpress 4/1: Juicy spot to scratch into, I can tell you that. I dont think he was going to run well yesterday in the race he was entered and opted for this spot which I do believe to be better but a whole lot deeper of a field. While parked outside, I think this runner should get a REALLY nice trip right off the flank of the runner directly to the inside. Bode of course has some back class that he can lean on, plus if pace holds up like it did yesterday, getting the first jump will be key and I dont think that’ll be an issue. Interesting to note that after the effort in the stakes race at Toga off the shelf, Delgado brings back JJ in this spot to ride. Speaking of that race at Toga, it was just to far. I think we all knew it was to far and that he should fade pretty bad, and did. Cuts back here to a more reasonable distance, should have pace control and 2nd off the layoff, should get a big effort.
#4 Signalman 8/1: I will always have a true love for this horse and I actually think he has a big shot here although his ML is much lower then what it should be. Runner for McPeek comes in off a turf effort that is a complete toss out and if you go two races back, here at CD and at this distance, never had a true shot as they went slow on the front end and he just leveled out, beaten 4 1/4 lengths. I dont believe he had the right jockey on him as well (Cohen that day) but returns back in the hands of BHJ and should get some pace to run at today. Working solidly in the AM and I tend to think that they just needed a filler race so that turf event was just a prep for this spot here. Square price!
Race 8-
#8 Fancy Liquor 9/2: If there is gonna be a horse that beats the favorite, its this one. Runner for Maker hasnt missed the board in 5 starts and comes in off a really nice effort over the yielding at Indiana where he beat a non graded stakes field by a neck. Horse is in great form and will be the stiff challenge on the front end for Smooth Like Strait to contend with. As we mentioned before, Geroux isnt making a single mistake and he’s only winning 30% of his mounts with Maker over last 60 days. Speed figures are just a smidge below the heavy favorite but a small regression by chalk and an improve by this one and we could have a big upset.
Race 9-
#4 Vertical Threat 8/1: BEST BET OF THE ENTIRE WEEKEND COMES RIGHT HERE!!!!!! Throw out the debut on the grass and tell me this horse isnt 3/1 instead of 8/1. Has not done anything wrong in two starts on the dirt and is only getting better. 91 in debut on the dirt, 97 LTO, another improve from this one and look out!!!!! Whats great is the fact that there is so much pace in this race and this runner wants no part of that. He’ll sit in behind and run them down as the pace makers get leg weary. Baltas has been very good of recent and pulls his classic 6f to 5f bullet drill shenanigans with this one. Not only is this horse live, but I believe this is the horse to beat and the best bet of any card all weekend. 8/1 is more then fair but we’ll be lucky to get half of that. Pick as best bet!
Race 10-
#10 Drop Anchor 15/1: On a non bias race track, this runner was able to mow them down in the lane at Ellis and received a nice speed figure for that effort. The rail shouldn’t be much of an issue due to the fact that this runner has very little, if any, front end speed. I know the track played well to speed yesterday but I think they’ll even that out today. BHJ for McPeek as we mentioned has been one of the hottest combos in the game of recent. They have a live one here on the rail. Looking to spring the upset.
#4 Ultimate Badger 12/1: Was ultra impressive in debut and has the most optimal style of any of the runners in here. Will sit just off the pace, as did in debut, and with how willing and classy he’s looked in the morning, I think has a big shot today. Talamo keeps the mount here and an improve off that 73 speed figure seems obvious. Anybody who watches that debut will know that this one has a big chance to run well today. Should come down quite a bit off that 12/1 ML.
#3 Super Stock 6/1: The only other runner in here who has run a 90+ speed figure outside of the heavy favorite. Comes out of a win in a non graded stakes event at Lone Star, this one is looking to keep improving while stretching out. Bloodlines say that shouldn’t be an issue whatsoever. Ricardo and Asmussen team up here who always seem to have a runner run huge on a day like this. Perhaps this is the one. Wouldn’t be surprised!
Race 11-
#7 La Signare 10/1: Gonna try and beat the heavy favorite here with this runner who is coming out of the Jenny Wiley where she never picked up her feet. If you look past that race, she likes the distance, she has a 2nd in her only start on the CD turf and Ricardo seems to get the most out of her when he’s aboard. Has been working well in the AM, which includes a 4f :48.4 work at the beginning of Aug. She will have the right running style in here as Newspaperofrecord will have LOTS of company on the front end. This one won’t do her best running until super late. Looking to spring the upset!
#4 Newspaperofrecord 4/5: I mean, she’s the obvious choice here. She has been nothing short of dazzling since getting an 11 month layoff. She has all the back class in the world and faces a group that doesn’t seem all that “loaded”. She will have some company on the front end but she seems to have a higher rate of speed so it’s possible that she clears and never looks back. If she’s fresh off the shelf again, everybody else is running for 2nd.
Race 12-
#10 Ce Ce 3/1: Although I think ultimately this race is a little short for her, she’ll be running for the 2nd time off the layoff after running a very respectable speed figure LTO. An improve is a no brainer and the fact that she has a running style that’ll be extremely successful in here, makes her extremely tough. 3/1 seems short for a runner who won’t be running at her favorite distance and she’s never tried the CD surface but she’s extremely classy. JohnnyV picks up the mount here and worth noting that he was aboard that 4f :47 flat drill on 8/28. She’s the goods and will be a single for me!
Race 13-
#9 Somelikeithotbrown 8/1: I just love this horse. Always runs his guts out each and every time. He’ll have lots of company, so it looks like on paper, on the front end but I don’t think it’s a necessity that he has the lead. An impressive win at Saratoga LTO off the shelf. A near top for that effort means another improve is in store and that’ll make him extremely tough in this spot. Gaff gets the call for Maker, who when teamed up over past 60 days have won at 26% clip, will look to make it back to back winners.
#1 Factor This 3/1: This is the one to beat, especially with how Cox runners ran yesterday, you would think this one would be primed for a monster effort in here as well. Coming in off of 4 wins in a row, this is another runner who will want to be at or near the front end and while being parked on the rail, I think ShaunB only has one choice and thats shoot forward and see what transpires after that. Horse has serious back class, is 3-1-1-0 at CD, 4-3-0-0 at the distance. 3rd race off the layoff we should see a career effort here and if that is the case, the 101 three back should be insanely tough here. Has been working extremely well over the CD turf in the mornings and by the looks of it, all systems a go today. Should be one of the favorites to win here.
#6 Mr Dumas 12/1: I cant forget this runner who I will use in all multi race wagers. Quite simply put, his numbers fit here AND she is a horse for course… 4-3-0-1 at CD. I know hes only tried this distance on two occasions but I think this could be his best distance. He will be coming from off of the pace, which should be quite fair. Manny needs to make sure he stays in the clear with him and not get boxed in. You see it so often in these turf races, you try and save ground and what happens is you get boxed in on the hedge and cant get out. He needs to be extremely careful of that but if the pace is honest, like I said, I think this will be the one who will get the first jump on them down the lane. Bomb.
Race 14- KENTUCKY DERBY!!!!!
#17 Tiz the Law 3/5: Nothing needs to be said about how fantastic he’s been this season. He’s been not just unbeatable, he’s been UNTOUCHABLE. In 2020, the smallest margin of victory has been 3 lengths and he’s done it with ease. He will have some trouble to navigate early as both Authentic and Honor AP have speed and could squeeze him if not careful. His impressive Travers at 1 1/4m tells us that the distance isnt the issue whatsoever. He has it all and if Manny can avoid a MAJOR issue, he’s the winner. It’s just that simple. Anything over the ML of 3/5 and its time to put the hammer down!
#15 NY Traffic 20/1: One thing I love in the Derby are grinders and there is no other way to define this runner then just a pure GRINDER! Seems to run his guts out each and every time that he hits the track. LTO he lost by just a nose to Authentic, before that lost by a length to late running Maxfield, before that grinded away in the Louisiana Derby to lose by 1 1/2 to Wells Bayou. He’s always there and always runs huge. He’ll be some part of the pace, I dont know exactly what thoughts Paco has but he’ll be close. If he runs another top off that Haskell effort, he’s right there with any kind of misstep from Tiz. Price will be right too.
#7 Money Moves 30/1: A new shooter who will take a lot of play, imo. Hasnt done anything wrong whatsoever in three career starts for Todd Pletcher. If you look from a speed figure standpoint, 84 in debut, 96 2nd out, 100 LTO to Prioritize who I believe won a stakes race yesterday so you know that race was super live! Is he classy enough… I dont know. Thats what we will have to figure out. I think JJ needs to be extremely careful and take his time with this runner in here. If he tries to challenge the big dogs early, he’s asking to finish 15th. If he can settle in and find a nice spot, He has a shot to not only hit the board but spring a MONUMENTAL upset here. Whats even more impressive is the fact that as Pletcher stretches him out, he keeps getting better. No reason to think that he cant take another step forward in this spot, on the biggest stage in racing!
#2 Max Player 30/1: The one thing that sticks out more then anything is his last 1/4m splits. They are the fastest in the entire field. Now, I know Tiz was relaxed and not pressed for much in the Travers but Max Player went .8 seconds faster then Tiz that last 1/4m. Significant. He constantly passes runners, runs fast late and should be considered as a live horse IF the damn track will play fair. Horse is working well and now switching over to the barn of Asmussen, he’s looking to win his first Derby ever. Perhaps just a stone unders play with this one but you never know… its the Derby!
I wish everybody the best of luck today! Lets see if we can find some winners and cash some tickets!!!
-GenoG