Picks: 12 / 3 / 4,13,14
The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf is set, with an overflow field of 14 entered plus 1 Also Eligible. Before we jump into picks and horses, there are a few trends worth noting about Juvenile Turf races at the Breeders Cup. Over the last 5 years, there have been 11 BC juvenile turf races run. Of those 11 winners, every single one of them entered the BC race off of a career best effort in the previous race (a “top” in thorograph terms.) Of the 33 horses to hit the board (1st – 3rd), 24 of them ran a top last out, while 6 ran a “pair” last out (a race equal to their best effort but not a new best effort). This makes sense – juvenile horses should be rapidly improving each start, and ones that are regressing or bouncing off of previous efforts are unlikely to win a race of this caliber. Therefore, we will be strongly preferring horses who have exited a career best effort last race, showing they are on the improve and ready to fire a big effort today.
With that said, let’s run through the contenders briefly:
#1 Our Country – This horse ran a strong race to break his maiden by open lengths, then returned as the favorite in the With Anticipation stakes only to stumble badly out of the gate and find himself too far back of a very slow pace. He only managed a non-threatening fourth in that race, but he gave a much better showing of himself in the Pilgrim when launching a furious rally from last to get up for third. Not sure his run style fits the typical profile at Santa Anita, and he needs to break better and improve again to be able to challenge this field. Pass.
#2 Structor – Structor is a perfect 2 for 2 and enters this race for the ever-dangerous Chad Brown barn. While he hasn’t done anything wrong, he just hasn’t appeared that impressive, both visually and on paper. I’m not sure that Andesite wouldn’t have caught him late in the stretch last race if he didn’t lug in a few times and get off his stride. It’s worrying to see Irad jump off a Brown horse and land on another, and at a shorter price I’ll be against this one. Pass.
#3 Peace Achieved – This horse has been a completely different animal since stretching out to a route, posting a perfect 3 for 3 record when going two turns. This colt ran a big new top last out when pressing an honest pace for 8.5 furlongs and holding off the closers. He has improved in each start of his career, and a repeat of his last makes him competitive with most of these. If he improves again he will be a strong win threat, and he possesses a run style that works well at Santa Anita while getting a slight turnback to an even mile. Of all the main contenders, he drew the best, so don’t overlook this one simply due to the less glamorous connections. Live longshot and main threat.
#4 Decorated Invader – Decorated Invader is less than a length away from being unbeaten, and notice that Irad ends up here instead of his usual Chad Brown mount. This one has plenty of versatility, able to stalk a pace or take back a bit farther if need be. Clement adds Lasix, a strong move for this barn, and this one was impressive when winning the Summer Stakes at Woodbine last month while overcoming a slow pace where the 99-1 pacesetter held on for second place. He has been working out strong in the mornings, and figures to threaten here. Contender.
#5 Vitalogy – There isn’t much secret as to what Vitalogy will do in this race; let the others go and make one huge run late and try to mow them down. Unfortunately, that run style rarely works on the Santa Anita turf, and there isn’t enough speed in here at first glance to suggest a total pace collapse is likely. He did run a much-improved race in the G3 Bourbon, losing by a neck to Peace Achieved, but would need to get involved much earlier and for everything to go perfect for him to have a chance. Useful horse underneath, but a minor award is most likely. Exotics possibility.
#6 Graceful Kitten – Graceful Kitten is yet another horse entering today with an unblemished record of 3-3, all over the Gulfstream Park turf. Gulfstream Turf often plays similar to Santa Anita where speed carries well, but this one regressed last out when trying 2 turns for the first time. Amador Sanchez is a relatively unknown trainer, and while this is a nice colt, the waters feel a bit too deep here. Pass.
#7 Andesite – Andesite narrowly missed to Structor last out in the G3 Pilgrim, and a real argument can be made that he’d have gotten to that one if he hadn’t lugged in during the stretch. He also was chasing that slow pace in the With Anticipation Stakes, and he has shown steady improvement in each start of his career, so another new top effort is likely. However, this one still feels a bit green and would need another significant improvement to compete for top honors here. Exotics possibility.
#8 Billy Batts – Honest trying sort will play a factor in the pace scenario if nothing else, as he has gotten involved early in every start and gets the services of aggressive rider Paco Lopez on board. There is other speed signed on though, and this one has faded at a mile in a few of his starts already. Blinkers come off, so possibly he gets to settle and rate here, but needs a big move forward to contend. Pass.
#9 – Gear Jockey – Still a maiden, this one is likely to be completely overlooked at the window. He clearly prefers the turf, and while he hasn’t yet crossed the wire first he wasn’t beaten by all that much in his 2 starts either, including by 2 of today’s rivals Peace Achieved and Vitalogy. While I can’t blame the connections for taking a shot, this feels like far too tough a place for him to break his maiden. Pass.
#10 War Beast – War Beast goes out for red-hot Doug O’Neill and Abel Cedillo, and while this horse was beaten by a few of today’s foes, that last effort represents a significant move forward. Perhaps he really just took to the Santa Anita turf, or maybe he is better when he makes the lead. Needs to improve a lot to compete here, and it seems highly unlikely he gets the lead. Pass.
#11 Proven Strategies – Still a maiden after 4 tries, he’s only managed to hit the board once. Appears to be in far over his head today, and would be a massive surprise if he pulls off the upset. Pass
#12 Arizona – Arizona will lead the Aiden O’Brien charge. This well-regarded colt blasted a group of maidens as the odds-on favorite at the Curragh, then returned to win the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at the prestigious Royal Ascot. He found the heavy going too demanding when returning from a 2 month break at the Darley Prix Morny, but still holding on for a respectable third behind strong 2-year-old Earthlight and ahead of Juvenile Turf Sprint contender A’Ali. He then ran into Godolphin megastar Pinatubo in his subsequent two starts, and while he never threatened that one, he did acquit himself nicely compared to the rest of the field. For those who don’t follow racing across the pond, Pinatubo is the highest timeform rated 2-year-old in the past 25 years, and is currently rated higher than legendary Frankel was at that stage of his career. There is absolutely no shame in being beaten by Pinatubo, and the fact he was able to stay within 2 lengths over soft ground he may not appreciate speaks volumes to Arizona’s ability. He now gets firm ground for the first time since his maiden score, which should bolster his chances, and he also possesses some tactical speed, a crucial element as he has received a disadvantageous draw in the 12 post. Aiden O’Brien has won this race 4 of 12 times and first call pilot Ryan Moore ships over, who was on board for both victories. Arizona’s last race was significantly better than anything anyone else in this field has ever run, and a simple duplication of that will make him extremely hard to beat here. The Pick.
#13 Fort Myers – The “other” O’Brien enters this race with decent credentials of his own. This son of War Front by a Galileo dam gives him a rich turfy pedigree. He won at first asking in his maiden, something somewhat uncommon for O’Brien trained horses, but word must have been out as he was bet down to the odds-on favorite in that race. He has taken a little time to get back to his winning ways, but he broke through with a new top last out at Dundalk. While O’Brien often preps shippers for turf on the synthetic surface at Dundalk, it is mildly concerning he is 2-2 over the all-weather track but 0-5 on the turf. Donnacha O’Brien, the regular pilot for Fort Myers, has mentioned that Fort Myers runs better over a turn, something he hasn’t had since his maiden score (all other races were run on a straight course). Perhaps he’ll relish the two turn Santa Anita configuration. Mixed signals on this one, and the draw doesn’t help, but don’t overlook. Live longshot and win contender.
#14 Hit the Road – Hit the Road is the only horse in the race with a win over the local surface, and he has not had to ship, two factors that often cannot be overstated. He ran okay in his maiden but took a huge step forward in his last effort at Santa Anita, drawing away powerfully to win by 2 lengths. Local ace pilot Flavian Prat takes the mount, who has been hitting at a strong 24% rate over the fall meet. The draw does put this one at a massive disadvantage, but this one does his best running late so Flavian will have to be patient and try to secure a position midpack and save as much ground as he can before firing his late run. With a better draw he could challenge for a top position, but seems like he will need a lot of racing luck to go his way from this outside post. Live longshot and win contender.