- Living In The Past (IRE)- D.Tudhope- Karl Burke
- One of the many European shippers in this huge field today is coming in from Group 1 and Group 2 outings. She has won a Group 2 at York two races ago. I’m not too sure what happened in her previous besides the fact that she got tired and flattened out. Her connections decide not to use lasix which is sometimes the key factor in what decides whether or not the connections ship over to America. She seems to be outclassed and she has run consistent 16s on the Ragozin Sheets which is a little above the median for the field which is around 14. The post won’t help her either by being the #1 hole in a full 14 horse field.
- Croughavouke (IRE)- Prat- Mullins
- Croughavouke has already ran at Santa Anita and Del Mar in her two starts in America, but she has come close with two tight seconds in those two starts. Drayden Van Dyke rode her in those two prior races and switches to a different horse in this field which is interesting. She seems to be just a small stakes horse and nothing more in my eyes. Prat will blow up the board in one of these races so I would keep an eye on this horse regardless of form. She is coming off a career best number and she has a steady improvement on the sheets.
- Shadn ( IRE) – J P Spencer/ Balding
- This filly is interesting because this will be her fourth jockey in 4 starts including this one. That can either be a bad angle or it could mean nothing. She is a Group 2 winner which came in her last start. She is also getting Lasix for the first time today which will only benefit her. However, from a ragozin standpoint she hasn’t improved at all staying right around a 15. She should be right near the pace and will pounce down the stretch but I have my concerns. However she could be sitting on a big effort
- Abscond- Irad Ortiz Jr.- Kenneally
- She is a Grade 1 winner which came last time out. Should be near the early pace. Irad Ortiz Jr. is the best jockey in the US and it really isn’t a competition so that should help her especially since he rode her in the G1 win. However some bad things to note, is that this is her 4th different track in only 4 starts. Increasing beyers look good but she is super consistent on the ragozins at around 15.
- Daahyeh( GB) – Buick/ Varian
- I like this a lot more than some of the other Euros in this race. Buick had given this filly her best two trips and results to date and ships in with her to ride this one today. She has consistent 15s and she doesn’t get lasix today even with the availability. She should be tough in here however and should be closer to the pace today.
- Unforgetable (IRE)- Lordan/ J. O’Brien
- I think this is the most forgettable horse in the field so her name is kind of ironic. She just seems to be slow and outclassed. Gets lasix today which could help. She has yet to win even a small stake overseas, and her career best number is a 15 but usually averages around an 18.
- Crystalle- Rosario- Kimmel
- She is one of my top picks if not the top pick. She is a huge closer with the best and my favorite closing trip jockey Joel Rosario. She should be rolling late like she has in all 3 starts. This filly is the filly that was DQ’d in debut at Saratoga with Landeros aboard at 42/1. Since then Rosario has kept her out of trouble and in the exacta. She is steadily improving on the Ragozins and on Beyers. Her most recent Rag number was a 12 which stands out among the elite in this field. 8/1 will be a gift from above so I expect those odds to be cut in half at least.
- Tango (IRE)- R. Moore/ A. O’Brien
- This is the legendary Jockey/ Trainer combination that comes overseas in the big races and dominates. Everyone knows that though. She is coming off of her best number in her career of a 13 on ragozins and 97 on timeform. She is only a small stake winner though overseas and steps up immensely today. First time Lasix is huge for a filly coming into top form so I expect this one to be live.
- Albigna- Foley/ Mrs. J. Harrington
- This is my top Euro despite the average and consistent 15s on the ragozin. She is a group 1 winner in France, and she gets her regular jockey today too. She also won a G2 which is huge. She should be right near the pace today and that works at SA. She is coming off her career best number in the biggest race to date which is ideal for my handicapping. She should fire an even better number today but she doesn’t get lasix today which is a head scratcher.
- Fair Maiden- Drayden Van Dyke- Eoin Harty
- Fair Maiden gets blinkers for the first time today and she should be the pacesetter. Both of those things are good but when they are put together its usually even better. Van Dyke can be aggressive at times and this horse seems to like to be aggressive early. She has never run on a firm ground but will today, which is also a plus for me. She ran a 10 on ragozins two back in her stakes win, and then a 14 in the G1 up at Woodbine. She could be sitting on a stellar gate to wire effort and if there is any speed bias today, i would use this horse and attack.
- Sharing- Franco- Motion
- I don’t see much in this filly but she did run a 14 last time out in the ungraded Selima Stakes at Laurel. That was also her best beyer in a 72. Franco must like this horse is he went to Laurel for her and now out west for her too. She should be near the pace but with the 10 to the inside of her definitely sending, she might have to rate a little more than usual. She seems to just be slightly outclassed for my liking today.
- Sweet Melania- Jose Ortiz/ Todd Pletcher
- She will be the favorite at PT, especially because of the connections and she won a Grade 2 already. She is coming off a career best on beyers but not on Ragozins. She ran a 13 on Ragozins last time out but an 11 two back. She should be sitting mid pack in my opinion but I can see Jose duel on the lead today too since she does have tactical speed. Crystalle has beaten her before too which is huge for me because I prefer Crystalle over her anyway. Should have an impact in the final saying though.
- Selflessly- Castellano- Brown
- For once, I am not worried about Chad Brown in a Grade 1 Turf Stakes race. I just don’t have that Grade 1 Breeders Cup feeling from this specific filly. She has run a 13 Ragozin number in her last start and is lightly raced which means she is still improving and learning which is a plus. I just don’t see this race tending to huge closers not named Crystalle. She should land in the Exotics but I would pass on the win. Probably smart to use her in Horizontals though.
- Etoile- Frankie Dettori- Aiden O’ Brien
- This filly was supposed to be the next big thing overseas and she showed that in her debut, back in May in a Group 3. However after that effort, she was shelved for 4 plus months and came back in a group 1 and never even threatened. Could she be a bleeder and need Lasix for that to clear up, only Aiden O’Brien truly knows that. Frankie Dettori wouldn’t ride this horse for Aiden O’Brien if she was some dud. I like her a lot today but the post also makes me want to stay away. I’ll be using her in horizontals but in order for me to play her in vertical wagers I would have to watch the board and see if she is getting any play.
All in all I think this field is loaded with pace pressure but not many pacesetters. I think FAIR MAIDEN will definitely control the early pace and could go gate to wire if the trip is timed right. I think ETOILE, SHADN, AND TANGO will all improve and be contenders especially will the added Lasix. I think CRYSTALLE and SELFLESSLY will be the huge closers and I would go with CRYSTALLE over SELFLESSLY 10 out of 10 times in this field. ALBIGNA will need to be quicker today but I think that she is very capable of doing that. The rest of the field is very average to me when it comes to speed figures and form. My top Picks in order are
- #7 Crystalle
- #14 Etoile
- #10 Fair Maiden
- #9 Albigna
- Tie between #3 Shadn, #8 Tango, and #13 Selflessly.
Best of Luck on cashing tickets and playing along with me and The Daily Gallop.