2019 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Saturday November 2nd: Race 7 at Santa Anita Park. The $2,000,000 Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf run at 1 ¼ miles on the turf for fillies and mares three years old and upward. (Post Time: 4:54 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter/Instagram: @Whtnbourbonguy
On Thursday October 30th, it was announced by multiple media sources that Thais, a five year old mare by Rio De La Plata and trained by Chad Brown, was being scratched from this field. Apparently Thais had been brought to the attention of the equine medical director for the California Horse Racing Board, Dr. Rick Arthur, as potentially being unsound. Upon personal examination by Dr. Arthur who was accompanied by another CHRB veterinarian, Dr. Tim Grande, much to Brown’s consternation Thais was declared as being physically unsound and thus was promptly scratched from the race. Brown was denied further explanation as to why his mare was being scratched and the use of diagnostic imaging and other tests was rejected as well which understandably left the trainer quite angry.
Now the scratch of Thais from this field is significant for a variety of reasons, first and foremost of which is the fact that she was expected to be a pacesetter (or serve as a “rabbit”) for her stablemate Sistercharlie. However, Thais’ absence may not hurt Sistercharlie as much as some have speculated. Why? Well although Thais has been entered numerous times into the same race to help make or set the pace for Sistercharlie, she has only successfully accomplished that duty once in three tries this year. Generally once a quality pacesetter has gotten out to the lead, he or she will remain no more than a few lengths in front of the bulk of the field setting reasonable fractions that ideally allow the flow of the race to set up well for their stablemate, especially if said stablemate is a closer. Now the only time this year that Thais ran as she was supposed to occurred back in July in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Belmont Park. In that race, she broke well, had a clear initial lead, set reasonable fractions which in turn allowed Sistercharlie to easily win the race going away down the stretch. However, the next two times Thais was tasked with pacesetting for her stablemate she did not do her job well at all.
In the G1 Beverly D Stakes at Arlington Park in August, Thais shot out to the front, set a rather brisk initial pace (which would actually result in Sistercharlie shattering the track record for the distance) and then kept on putting daylight between herself and the rest of the field, thus forcing Sistercharlie to fight her own battle as the race essentially split into two separate races (one: the race Thais was running on her own and two: the race the rest of the field was contending). In the end everything still worked out as Sistercharlie was able to easily put away her rivals with a brilliant kick down the stretch. Yet, things became a little dicier last time out in the G1 Flower Bowl Stakes run in October once again at Belmont Park. In that race, Thais once again shot out to a massive lead with no regard for Sistercharlie and the rest of the compact field and at one point led her rivals by over 12 lengths whilst setting crawling fractions. Once again Sistercharlie was left to fend for herself and still managed to find a way to win, though her rival Mrs. Sippy was hard charging down the stretch and lost by less than a length.
If one were to look back to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf run at 11 furlongs at Churchill Downs over a very soggy turf course, they would recall that Thais was supposed to help out Sistercharlie (and the other members of the Brown Brigade that were entered as well) by setting the pace but she completely missed the break at the start and as a result was a non-factor in the race entirely. However, there were other early speed types entered into that field and as such that likely helped out Sistercharlie as she was just able to run down Wild Illusion in the deep stretch to win by a neck at the wire. Thus it does appear that while the connections for Sistercharlie would likely have preferred that Thais remain in the race, Sistercharlie does not absolutely need her stablemate’s presence to win.
Now I mentioned that there were several reasons why the scratch of Thais from this field is so significant and the second major reason is that the absence of Thais now leaves just the four year old Colonel John filly Mirth as the lone early speed type runner in the field. This is concerning especially given the fact that last time out over this course and distance, Mirth took the field of the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes in gate to wire fashion. Now can Mirth achieve a similar result on Saturday? It’s very unlikely that this filly can pull off another massive upset especially considering that the rivals that she will be facing in this field are vastly superior to those she encountered last time out. Although, it needs to be noted that now with the presence of just a single runner with pace-setting tendencies, the closers in this field could be at a major disadvantage while those horses that can either press or stalk the pace from close up could see their chances at hitting the board significantly upgraded.
So what does this all mean? Can Sistercharlie still win this race in back to back years? Is she still a solid lock for singling on top in exotics and in multi-race wagers. Prior to the defection of Thais, I had given Sistercharlie a 90-95% chance that she ends up winning her 7th Grade 1 stakes in a row. Now without Thais, I do think Sistercharlie becomes a bit more vulnerable especially considering that the pace dynamics of this race have changed considerably (previously there were two potential pace-setters that would likely carve out solid early fractions and thus allow the closers to have a bona fide chance at being able to run well late; now with just a single pace-setter, those early fractions are likely to be quite pedestrian and thus could compromise the late runs from the closers whilst favoring those horses whose natural running style positions them up close to the pace). I would estimate that Sistercharlie’s chances of winning this race have fallen to about 70-75% now and it has opened the door to my endorsing of several runners that I previously would not have considered using whatsoever in this race. This is in no way to say then that I would recommend leaving Sistercharlie off the top slot on all your single race tickets as I believe that she still has the best chance of any of the runners in this field to win this race especially given her prior experience. Yet, this still does open the door for the possibility of playing several runners on top as well as they will likely command much better prices than Sistercharlie as this extremely talented super-mare will likely go off at or just below even money by post time. Please feel free to use this analysis however you like when shaping your own opinions on this race and best of luck when wagering!
Selections: #9 Villa Marina- #2 Sistercharlie- #12 Fanny Logan
1. Iridessa (Joseph O’Brien, Wayne Lordan)
3yo Filly by Ruler of the World
TimeForm: NA
8-1 ML
Running Style: Pace-Presser/Pace-Stalker
Last Time Out: 3rd on October 5th at Newmarket in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes run over a mile on good to soft rated ground.
Prior Form: Multiple Group 1 Winner over in Britain and Ireland; has raced primarily at seven and eight furlongs, yet owns a victory at Saturday’s distance of 10F when taking on older rivals for the first time in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh on June 28th.
Notes: Iridessa’s running style of a pace-presser (seen in several of her efforts this year including the win in the Pretty Polly when defeating the very talented Magic Wand) or pace-stalker could be a major advantage for her over many of her rivals in this field given the potentially slow pace scenario. Such ability will likely allow her to keep in contact with the likely early pace-setter (Mirth) and thus be able to get first jump on that rival should she begin to fade as the field turns for home. Although Iridessa has only twice run beyond 8F (and her effort in the G1 Irish Oaks going 12F was a disaster when soundly beaten by Star Catcher), her Pretty Polly performance suggests that she is more than capable of handling the stretchout in distance once again and should be viewed as a major contender in this field. Additionally she receives the benefit of First Time Lasix on Saturday and will once again have the services of her primary rider Wayne Lordan (who while he has yet to win a turf race in 12 tries this year in North America, has hit the board in 7 of those attempts).
Ultimatum: A fringe win contender but a must use for underneath in exotics.
2. Sistercharlie (Chad Brown, John Velazquez)
5yo Mare by Myboycharlie
TimeForm: 63 EP/116 LP
ML: 8/5
Running Style: Closer
Last Time Out: Won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Stakes at Belmont Park on October 6th going 1 ¼ miles over firm ground.
Prior Form: Winner of six straight Grade 1 efforts in the United States dating back to last July; three wins in six tries at 10F and a 5 for 6 record of landing in the exacta at the distance; winner of this race last year (going 11F) at Churchill Downs.
Notes: Sistercharlie looms as the one to beat in this race and prior to the scratch of her stablemate Thais on Thursday, she looked to be one of the best bets to win on Saturday. This mare is a very talented closer and even without Thais to help set the pace for her in this race, she still will be quite dangerous. If Velazquez can race her closer up to the pace early on rather than dropping her back towards the rear of the field then her chances of repeating as the winner of this race go way up. She does have an excellent late closing kick which she will once again try to employ to devastating effect as she comes flying down the stretch; however, given the potential pace scenario for this race there is a question as to whether or not her rivals will be too far ahead of her in the waning stages of the race for that kick to be truly effective. Sistercharlie has looked absolutely fantastic since stepping out onto the track at Santa Anita and her prior works at Belmont leading up to this race suggest she is in excellent form. Over the past three years, Brown has been winning at a 28% rate (63% ITM) with runners that won their last race. Velazquez has been aboard Sistercharlie since she came over from France in 2017 and has never finished worse than 2nd when aboard her.
Ultimatum: The one to beat. Win contender but 2nd choice as there is another in this field that I believe has the chance to spring the upset and should offer more value at post time.
3. Fleeting (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore)
3yo Filly by Zoffany
TimeForm: 44 EP/133 LP
6-1 ML
Running Style: Closer
Last Time Out: 4th in the Group 1 QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot on October 19th run over 1 7/16th miles on soft ground.
Prior Form: Has not won since capturing the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September; soundly beaten 4th in US debut by Sistercharlie in Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington Park in August; unlucky to finish 2nd two starts back in Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp losing to rival Villa Marina; tested repeatedly when battling top 3yo filly Star Catcher throughout the year.
Notes: To say that Fleeting has had a run of bad luck this year would be a massive understatement. This filly has had the misfortune of tangling not only with the incredibly talented John Gosden trainee Star Catcher on multiple occasions, ran into Sistercharlie when making her US debut, and then was given a brutal ride last time out at Ascot in which her jockey’s inexperience cost her a running lane and a likely chance at winning. Fleeting is however a very talented closer who seems to be progressing at the right time; the only concern is given her running style which will likely have her at the rear of the field early on spotting her rivals many lengths. If this is the case it may be that Moore will be left with too much to do late and Fleeting will have to settle for a minor award instead of the victory her connections are so desperately seeking. Saturday will be the second time that Fleeting will receive Lasix and generally European runners do not fare quite as well when being given the wonder drug for the second time as compared to when they get it the first time. Additionally, it should be noted that O’Brien has not only posted a record of 13-0-2-2 throughout the history of this race but also that he is 0-29 in Breeders’ Cup races restricted to fillies and or mares.
Ultimatum: Fleeting is a talented filly no doubt but without a lot of pace up front for her to run after, I believe she is going to find herself up against it in the latter stages of the race and will not be able to drive past all her rivals in the end. Use underneath.
4. Billesdon Brook (Richard Hannon, Sean Levey)
4yo Filly by Champs Elysees
TimeForm: NA
ML:10-1
Running Style: Pace-Stalker/Closer
Last Time Out: Won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on October 5th going a mile over good to soft ground.
Prior Form: Has only contested one race this year at a distance over 8F (the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on May 5th going 9F and finished 3rd by over 4 lengths); has primarily raced at 7-8F this year; lone try at 10F came last August when finishing a well beaten 4th behind Wild Illusion in Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.
Notes: Billesdon Brook appears to be a bona fide miler and her prior efforts when stretching out to route distances have not gone well for her. Additionally given her running style, this could put her at a serious disadvantage in this field. The only benefit is that this filly will receive Lasix for the first time on Saturday and it may help her improve a bit.
Ultimatum: Cannot endorse, toss.
5. Mirth (Phil D’Amato, Mike Smith)
4yo Filly by Colonel John
TimeForm: 90 EP/77 LP
ML: 20-1
Running Style: Pace-Setter/Pace-Presser
Last Time Out: Won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita on September 28th going 10F over firm ground in gate to wire fashion. This was her first try versus graded stakes company.
Prior Form: Had been running decently versus optional claiming and listed stakes company on the turf at distances ranging from 8-11F before stepping up to graded stakes company last time out; 2 wins from 7 tries at Santa Anita (5-7 ITM); has finished in the exacta in both tries at the distance.
Notes: With the scratch of Thais, Mirth now looms large as the lone speed entered into this field. As such look for her to command the pace early on and unless heavily pressured, she will likely set modest or pedestrian early fractions. This could potentially result in the field bunching up behind her (as she does not appear to be like Thais in that she does not have the ability to spurt away to huge early leads); if this occurs, those runners that can effectively race close up to the pace will have the best chance at winning this race while the closers and deeper mid-pack runners will likely be put at a serious disadvantage. It would be very surprising to see Mirth pull off another upset similar to last time out as this field is certainly more talented than the one she faced that day. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see her hang around for a minor share late. Over the past three years, D’Amato has won with 20% of his runners that won their last race and finished in the money 50% of the time from 347 starters. Mike Smith keeps the mount following his last out victory aboard Mirth and has been winning at a 17% rate in turf races this year.
Ultimatum: Likely not good enough to steal this race on the front end but don’t be surprised if Mirth is still hanging around in the waning stages of the race. Use underneath.
7. Vasilika (Dan Ward, Flavien Prat)
5yo Mare by Skipshot
TimeForm: 77 EP/108 LP
ML: 8-1
Running Style: Pace-Stalker/Closer
Last Time Out: 3rd in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland on October 5th going a mile over firm ground.
Prior Form: Has not raced at this distance since September of last year when winning the G1 Rodeo Drive; has contested only one effort beyond 8F this year (won the G1 Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita in May); incredible record at Santa Anita: 12-11-1-0.
Notes: Previously trained by Jerry Hollendorfer who has been banned from ever racing again at Santa Anita, Vasilika was transferred over to the care of Hollendorfer’s assistant trainer Dan Ward so as to have a chance to compete in this race. That this mare is talented and that she loves the grass at Santa Anita, there is no disputing that. However, her running style is a concern and her race foundation leading up to this effort is problematic. Given that 6 of her past 7 starts this year have all been at 8F and now she is expected to stretch out to 10F on Saturday is concerning as the race flow for a mile on turf is completely different than the race flow for a longer route on the grass: a particular running style that may be conducive to racing at a mile (say that of a closer on a track that has been favoring closers) may not necessarily work when stretching out to a longer route distance. As such it is very hard to see Vasilika as having a good chance at winning this race on Saturday, especially considering that the potential pace scenario for this race may be skewed against closers. That being said, this mare has been training well leading up to this race and Prat has been lights out on the turf this year (26% win rate/62% ITM rate from 336 starts).
Ultimatum: Must respect Vasilika’s record at The Great Race Place but can only recommend for underneath use.
8. Castle Lady (Henri-Alex Pantall, Mickael Barzalona)
3yo Filly by Shamardal
TimeForm: 73 EP/100 LP
ML: 15-1
Running Style: Pace-Stalker
Last Time Out: 2nd in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland on October 12th going 1 1/8th miles over firm ground. This was her US debut after primarily racing in France and at Ascot in Britain.
Prior Form: Group 1 winner going a mile at Longchamp this May; QE II Cup effort was first time racing beyond 8F in career; has yet to contest 10F distance.
Notes: Although her pedigree does not lend much credence to her ability to continue to stretchout to 10F, in her US debut, she responded well racing beyond a mile for the first time and was slowly gaining on her rival Cambier Parc in the waning stages of the race which suggests that perhaps the expanded distance may not be too much of an issue. Castle Lady’s running style of a pace-stalker that has US experience already (something which many of her European rivals in this field lack) could give her an advantage on Saturday as Barzalona will likely try and keep her in touch with the leader/s early on and then make a bid for the front as the field turns for home. The one concern for Castle Lady is that she did receive Lasix last time and perhaps that is what contributed to her very solid 2nd place effort at Keeneland; there is the possibility that she could regress when receiving the drug for the second time in this race.
Ultimatum: Castle Lady is unlikely to be a major player in this race but if she remains near her morning line odds, she is worth using underneath in exotics, especially if one has a larger bankroll for this race.
9. Villa Marina (Carlos Laffon-Parias, Olivier Peslier)
3yo Filly by Le Havre
TimeForm: NA
ML: 8-1
Running Style: Pace-Stalker
Last Time Out: Won the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on October 6th racing 10F over soft going.
Prior Form: 3 wins from 5 tries at the distance and is 5-5 finishing in the exacta at 1 ¼ miles; Group 1 and 3 winner at the distance when racing in France this year.
Notes: Villa Marina just held off a hard-charging Fleeting last time out when racing over very soggy ground in the Prix de l’Opera, a race which has historically been a key prep for the Filly and Mare Turf (Wild Illusion who won last year’s Prix de l’Opera finished 2nd behind Sistercharlie in this race last year). Now it should be noted that Villa Marina’s best efforts have come over very soft ground over in France so perhaps a very firm turf course will not be to her liking; however, she has won at Saturday’s distance racing over slightly firmer when in France which offers some hope for her taking to the grass at Santa Anita. Her pace-stalking running style should keep her in contention throughout the entirety of this race and allow her to make a bid for the lead turning for home before the closers start their own runs. Villa Marina is one of the more talented three year olds in this field and if she can successfully handle the transition to racing in the US, then she should thrive on Saturday. Unlike many of her European rivals in this field, she will not be receiving Lasix which suggests that either her connections think she doesn’t need any medical assistance to win this race or that they are leery of using the drug as she has yet to race under its influence whilst in France.
Ultimatum: Villa Marina is tested at this distance, appears to be improving at the right time and should offer excellent value in this race given her running style. Win contender and Top Selection.
10. Mrs. Sippy (Graham Motion, Joel Rosario)
4yo Filly by Blame
TimeForm: 16 EP/134 LP
ML: 8-1
Running Style: Closer
Last Time Out: 2nd in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Stakes at Belmont Park on October 6th going 1 ¼ miles over firm going.
Prior Form: G2 winner in the 11F Glen Falls Stakes at Saratoga in August in US debut; soundly beaten earlier in the year when racing against group company in Britain; Group 3 placed last year racing 12F at Newmarket.
Notes: If there is one closer in this field that might drop even further back than Fleeting at the beginning of this race, it has to be Mrs. Sippy. She has absolutely zero early speed which is likely going to prove quite problematic for her in this race. However, she does have an incredibly powerful late closing kick as evidenced last time out when she nearly ran down Sistercharlie in the deep stretch in the Flower Bowl. However, in that effort she appeared to be all out and even then it was not enough to catch that super-mare. Additionally, it does appear that from her prior efforts but in the US and overseas that perhaps 10F is a bit on the sharp side for her and that 11-12F is more to her liking. Motion has really turned this one around since bringing her over from Britain earlier in the year and it would be no surprise to see her continue to improve. While Rosario is an excellent rider when paired up with closers (20% win rate/55% ITM from 444 starts this year), he may be left with just too much to do late.
Ultimatum: Consider if only for her two most recent efforts and use underneath.
11. Just Wonderful (Aidan O’Brien, William Buick)
3yo Filly by Dansili
TimeForm: 86 EP/105 LP
ML: 20-1
Running Style: Closer
Last Time Out: 7th in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland on October 5th going a mile over firm ground.
Prior Form: Has not won since Group 2 Shadwell Rockfel Stakes last September; 2nd in US debut in Grade 1 Belmont Oaks in July when stretching out to 10F for first time; Group 1 placed at a mile in Ireland this year.
Notes: Just Wonderful’s effort back in July in the Belmont Oaks is quite puzzling. The race marked her US debut, the first time she received Lasix and the first time she had raced beyond a mile; all in all she ran a valiant 2nd behind Concrete Rose that day. But then next time out she failed to back up that effort in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes going 1 ¼ miles over good rated ground at Goodwood and finished a well beaten 5th. Just Wonderful appears to be best suited racing at or around a mile and as such the 10F on Saturday will likely prove to be too much for her. Her running style is likely going to cause her some issues in this field given the lack of pace up front and the race flow is probably going to blunt any sort of closing kick she might have mustered. Just Wonderful will be receiving Lasix for the third time this year though given O’Brien’s record in this race it more than likely will not be enough to help her even hit the board.
Ultimatum: Toss
12. Fanny Logan (John Gosden, Frankie Dettori)
3yo Filly by Sea the Stars
TimeForm: NA
ML: 15-1
Running Style: Pace-Stalker
Last Time Out: Won the Group 3 Darley Pride Stakes going 1 ¼ miles over soft ground at Newmarket on October 11th. This was her first step up versus group company.
Prior Form: 3 wins from 4 tries at 1 ¼ miles; has run well over good and soft going; Group 3 winner in Britain this year.
Notes: It is not often that you see a Godolphin owned horse, trained by the great John Gosden and ridden by the immortal Frankie Dettori entered into a Breeders’ Cup race in the United States. When that happens, one should take note of that horse. Yes Fanny Logan is incredibly light when it comes to back class as she has contested just one group effort prior to this race. However, she is proven racing at the distance, appears to be able to handle all sorts of ground, and looks to be improving at just the right time. Given her running style of a pace-stalker that should be slotted in mid-pack early on and considering the rider who is onboard, look for Frankie to keep in touch with the leaders early on before beginning to maneuver for position throughout that final turn and then launching a bid for the front as the field hits the top of the stretch. If Fanny Logan can handle the step up in class on Saturday (the addition of Lasix for the first time should certainly help), she certainly merits major consideration in this field.
Ultimatum: Love the connections (owner, trainer and jockey), think Fanny Logan is on the up and if she stays above 10-1 odds, then she will offer great value in this race. LIVE LONGSHOT to win and 3rd Choice.