Race 1
6 – Data Driven – not much of an excuse in the last try over this very surface, but Rudy brings him back on the two weeks rest and will add blinkers for the first time (an 18% angle). He draws outside and has the versatility to try and get the lead or sit just off the pace, and I like the price vs. what should be a very heavily-bet favorite. He’s three of four at today’s distance and has two wins at Belmont. 6-4-1
Race 2
2 – Fusi – I wanted to use Frosty Linz up top, but I just can’t see past this one. Has been peppering the wire in her first four career starts and appears to have a soft bunch to run against this afternoon. If they send her Carmouche-style I think she has a chance to blow them away at a very, very short price. Single and move on here I think..2-1-5
Race 3
4 – En Wye Cee – more chalk unfortunately…. I can’t pick against this Pletcher colt who won on debut at the spa despite a poor break at the 6.5-panel distance, especially with all the speed signed on. It’s a nice stretch-out but I think he handles it and gets the set-up he wants. 4-1-2.
Race 4
6 – Kinenos – Brad Cox is sending this one out for the first time and he sure looks ready to fire for a barn that is no stranger to such an occurrence. The works have been consistent and sharp since the beginning of the Saratoga meet, and the barn excels with debut runners on the lawn. Lezcano gets the mount and we’re hoping he brought his turf dominance with him from upstate. 6-4-7
Race 5
8 – Laughing Matters – the first try against winners didn’t go as planned as he found himself in a speed duel and faded in the stretch. That was against a tougher group at the spa, and Baker hits on 20% of runners second-off this layoff (45-180). He appears to have the gate speed and there isn’t too much pace in here on paper, so I’ll take a swing at a nice expected price. 8-9-1
Race 6
6 – Sixteen Tons – I’ll be the first to admit that I usually pull the chips back for baby races, so by no means will I be sending it in on this one… but I like the outside draw for this Bodemeister colt going out first-time for Brad Cox. The barn hasn’t excelled locally in spots like this but their overall numbers with debut runners are fantastic, and I think Kendrick will give him the front-running ride that usually prevails with inexperienced horses. 6-2-4
Race 7
4 – Perfect View – speaking of first-timers here’s one that absolutely jumps off the page for Jorge Abreu. The barn connects on 26% of debut runners, and 25% if the first race is a mile or longer. Throw in the formidable sire stats for Arch and a juicy 8-1 morning line and I pretty easily found my play in here. Can Jersey Joe navigate against what appears to be a solid field of maidens? 4-6-2
Race 8
6 – Veldictorian – **LONE-SPEED ALERT** – Kelly Breen sends out this Temple City mare for her 30th career start, and I absolutely love her in this spot. She draws outside in a short field going one-turn at a distance she has excelled at (6: 3-0-1) and appears to be the easy choice to grab the early lead. The barn hits with 24% of runners off the short break (31-60) and she’s been working up a storm on the Jersey Shore. 6-5-2
Race 9
5 – Violent Delights – this one is a “law of averages” play in that he’s had some tough luck in the claiming ranks and eventually will break through again right? Right?? The reason I’m using on top is that the gelding does show speed and has fired in six of nine career races, and Albtertrani is putting him back into allowance company despite the aforementioned setbacks. It’s a confident move for a barn that needs a winner right now. 5-4-6
Race 10 – The Kelso
**Could be a ton of scratches with the cross-entries, I will tweet my opinion on this race once it’s finalized.
Race 11
10 – Star of the East – has the versatility to manage an outside post, and has a nice record over today’s distance on the lawn (4: 1-2-0). I expect a nice stalking trip and Javier will have her rolling in the lane. 10-8-7
2019 Belmont (fall)
Week 1 (9/7) – 11: 1-1-2, -74.5% ($22 wagered, $5.60 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 404: 97-77-67, -15.9% ($808 wagered, $679.40 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 24.0%Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.7%