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Race 1: 7,4,3 *Off Turf – 3,4,8
There are always exceptions to me not liking cutbacks on the turf and Blacktop Legend is one of them. Jonathan Thomas is 40 when cutting horses back from Routes to Sprints and is 27% when dropping horses from MSW to MCL.
Driver Dan is going out first time for Danny Gargan and gets Kendrick in the irons today which has been a solid combo. I nearly put this one on top, but Kendrick is best with horses on the pace early and this one has not flashed much speed. Nevertheless, I am not tossing this one from my tickets, especially at 8-1. If this race is off the turf I will take a shot with this one on top.
Tenure is a first-time starter for Clement and gets Rosario in the irons which is a good sign. This one was owned and bred by the Bertram’s and with Uncle Mo as the sire I am unsure why this one is starting off in the MCL, but at morning line 6-1 I will take a shot with this firster.
Race 2: 3,4,2
Candy Promise was my top pick last time out and he ran away from a similar field. Today I do not see any reason why he shouldn’t be able to do the same thing as on paper he looks to be lone speed again.
Javelin was second back last time out against Candy Promise and I see him being second again today. He will need another to run with Candy Promise early and I am not sure he gets that today.
Lazarus Project seems to run the same race every race but it is usually not good enough to win, but is to finish in the money which is what I am hoping for here today. He has finished either 2nd or 3rd in 22 of 42 career races which makes him a solid play for underneath in exactas and trifectas.
Race 3: 1,6
Our Honor did not have an ideal trip last time out and was gaining late. Today I think the stretch back out benefits him. Kendrick is back in the irons today and from the rail I am thinking that Kendrick will keep him closer to the pace.
Inclunation is getting back to the dirt today and gets Manny Franco in the irons. He has run well enough at 1 mile on the dirt that I think he is a deserving favorite, but a vulnerable one so I will take a shot against him on top but will use him in my multi’s.
Race 4: 8,6,5 *Off Turf -2,3,5
Stock Trade was bred by Bill Mott and is owned and trained by him which is a combo you do not see too often. Mott is dropping him down and once again putting him up for a tag here today and I think with the drop in class he gets the job done.
Ten Eyck in my opinion just fits well in this race. He has run decent in nearly all 10 of his career starts but usually it is not good enough to win. He does get Junior I the irons today though which I like and Junior and Morley have been a solid combo all year.
Bad Guy got the job done last time for the first time in 25 career starts and today finds a favorable field for his first race against others who have won before. He has run some of his best races here at Belmont so keeping this one on my tickets.
Race 5: 2,3,6
Lucky Bet is one of those horses who normally I would play against, but with this field being as weak as it is and the jockey upgrade to Lezcano I will bite and use this one on top. He has shown tactical speed in the past so I think he could be a threat against this bunch.
Mister Muy Bien has taken money in his last 3 starts and each start he has been disappointing. If he can’t be competitive against this field, then I’m not sure he ever will be competitive against any field. He gets Manny in the irons again today and is switching back to dirt which is a positive sign for his pedigree.
Ridolfo has shown early speed in the past and while he has never been able to harness it for a full race. He does get Kendrick in the irons today though who is one of the best front-end riders in New York. If Kendrick can get him out early to the lead, he has a shot against this inconsistent field.
Race 6: 8,4,1 *Off Turf – 6,3,5
Glossy is second off the layoff for Bill Mott and gets Junior back in the irons who has ridden her excellent in the past. She is coming in here with a few bullet works and I think she is sitting on a big race today.
Really Proud is stretching out today which I like and gets Irad back in the irons who has been having a great meet. Her last 2 races he has stalked the pace and today stalking the pace should make her very dangerous in here.
Oleksandra (Aus) is running on the east coast for the first time and has some past races in California that would make her a threat in here today. She gets Rosario in the irons who is a very underrated turf rider so I will use this one on my tickets as well.
Race 7: 4,9,5 *Off Turf -15,16,12
Drynachan is making her 3 year old debut and in my opinion we will be lucky if we get near her morning line odds of 9-2. She has been working well leading into this one and as a 2 year old won her debut at Saratoga impressively, then had a tough trip in what was a very competitive Bolting Landing Stake. Irad gets the mount today which I like and I am expecting a big return race off the bench.
Chiclet’s Dream is making her 4 year old debut and keeps Javier in the irons for Chad. She has run well enough in the past to be a major threat against this field and with Chad training she is tough to rule out.
Merlins Muse is stretching out today which I like to see and with Johnny V getting the mount I think this one is live. She has tactical speed and with Johnny riding should carve out a good trip for her. If the pace collapses, she should be able to pick up the pieces.
Race 8: 1,7,6 *Off Turf – 3,5,8
Malakeh (GB) came up sort in her North American debut, but today the added distance should help. She keeps Javier in the irons and if she runs back to her last effort at Keeneland she will be the one to beat here.
Salsa Bella (Fr) has been working well and the added distance should benefit this one as well. She use to be in Chad’s barn and claiming off Chad on the turf is a tough ask, but she does have talent and should not be ignored here.
Too Cool to Dance goes out for Chad Brown and with Irad in the irons she should be the pace setter today. She has a win and a second in two races at Belmont and should have no issues getting this distance today.
Race 9: 6,4
I am not a huge fan of this race so I am taking a shot with longshot Flattering Eyes for Nick Zito. She is adding blinkers today and with her pedigree should have no issues getting this distance. Zito is not great with maidens second time out but the favorite here is vulnerable so I will take a shot against it.
Pretty Spectacular will be over bet today but is dropping far down in class today. I am not a huge fan of this one, but this is a very weak field and she is getting Lasix today for the first time.