Race 1-
6 – Neper – chased a pretty quick pace in the debut going wide the entire trip, certainly can excuse. Picks up Castellano and has two pretty nice works since. Blinkers coming off as well.
3 – Papa Jim – Ran well in the debut against less than these, then came back in a MSW 60k and called it quits on the backstretch. The bullet work on 3/3 and the slop that he won’t find today is reason to keep in the money.
Race 2
1 – Spring Emperor – coming off a nice place finish at Parx last month, this one will cut-back to a mile (where he is 3 for 11 lifetime) and stay out of the allowance company that got him in trouble a few times in PA. Should be decent pace in here and I think he can save ground inside and fire up the rail to take the money.
3 – Pretentious – keeping in mind the aforementioned speed duel, how about a 10-1 ML that is 6 for 9 ITM locally, 5 for 8 ITM at today’s distance and likes to close in for a piece? Shooting for just that to round out the exacta…
6 – Incubator – the likely favorite for Rudy draws outside, shows tons of early speed and gets Castellano for the first time today. Dropping back down a level today and hopes the zip can carry. Will try to keep underneath at a short price, though.
Race 3
1 – Karabessa – keeps showing up as second-best, but draws inside today and has two legitimate speed horses to sit behind. All three place finishes have been at the Big A, and today is the day she graduates at a nice price.
7 – Redouble – $140k Repole purchase making his second start for Rudy here; Didn’t have much in the first NY start but gets Franco and isn’t running against much in here.
3 – Mom I Forgive You – two bad trips locally at short prices, but today is a class drop and it’s worth looking for strike three with her debut in Kentucky producing a field-best Beyer.
Race 4
5 – Shadow Rider – has won at today’s long distance (3: 1-1-0) and is versatile enough to sport two straight wins. He’s won coming from way off the pace, as well as stalking the leaders. Two of the six have speed in here so I think he gets a target and runs them down.
2 – Turco Bravo – this guy loves the distance and the Big A, and should sit a nice stalking trip in here.
1 – Devine Dental – pure speed draws inside and has tried this distance before in finishing third. Will hope to break quick, settle up front and hang on.
Race 5
2 – Three to Thirteen – will show speed in a race that doesn’t have much pace on paper, and he is 4 for 5 ITM at today’s distance. Inside draw and a clean break could be the difference for a trainer that hits at 21% on short breaks like this.
1 – Special Story – jumps up in class here, but will also want to be near the lead in a manageable pace scenario. Looking for similar trip to my top selection and if the prices are right an exacta will be the play.
6 – Ro Bear – should sit a nice stalking trip and he’s been showing up every time as of late. Don’t think he’ll get enough pace to run into to win, but I certainly like him to pick up the pieces. In a pick-5 scenario, this feels like a spread race though….
Race 6
3 – Viradia – second start off the long layoff for Asmussen, who hits at 22% in such scenarios. He’s been good at the Big A and has a win over the distance.
10 – Votre Coeur – first try after the claim for Linda Rice, who excels in that regard (32%). Should show speed from the outside and have a nice stalking trip.
8 – Solitary Gem – should be a price, and there’s a few speed figures in there that make you wonder…
Race 7
8 – Warren’s Vengance – drops back into the lower claiming ranks after a rough trip in an OC60k last month. He has a nice stalking style and should feel at home vs. these today. Rudy and Franco tandem has been very sharp as well…
2 – Diamond Princess – also dropping in class and should show plenty of speed from the gate. If they let him get loose he could run away with this, but I’m thinking he gets just enough pressure to set it up for my top choice.
10 – No Stone Unturned – and here is that pressure I was eluding to… this one is coming off two wins in Maryland and will certainly be blazing from the bell. If he can clear from the
Race 8
1 – Life in Shambles – bad in stakes company last-out at Laurel, but should feel more comfortable in NY and Servis is so dangerous in spots like this. He should get a ground-saving trip from the inside and I like his chances to gobble them up the rail late.
7 – Fully Vested – will be flying early from the outside spot and is a perfect 6 for 6 ITM over the distance. This is a jump in class but speed kills and the price will be very fair.
3 – Skyler’s Scramjet – I certainly respect the likely favorite, but he hasn’t won since this race last year and I’ll have to see him do it again before leaning on him at a short price.
Race 9
5 – Title Ready – cuts back in distance and has success both at the distance and at the Big A. Three very nice works, and will definitely get a shot to use that stalk and pounce style here.
2 – Sunny Ridge – the clear favorite and well-deserved, I just like the price gap between my top choice and him. Servis will have him ready to roll, and he gets Franco back. Look out.
4 – Stan the Man – possible front-runner could wind up being the set-up runner for the top two, but there’s enough versatility that he’ll have a fair shot in here.
Race 10 – The Gotham
5 – Haikal – all three starts have been here and all three were very sharp. He came off the pace in each, winning two and coming up just short in the debut. There will be nobody in this field that will get a setup better than him, and with all the speed signed on he feels like the play at 6-1.
4 – Much Better – I’m not falling for this again… Baffert shipping in with his bench, double-digit ML, Mike Smith making the cross-country trip for one mount and a recent series of very sharp works? Yeah, he’s in my top three and won’t surprise me at all if he wires the field.
6 – Instagrand – class of the field, and a very dangerous player on the first Saturday in May, but the layoff scares me and he’s not going to have the lead to himself. Hollendorfer will have him ready to run, but at this price with this much hype, the gambler in me has to fade a bit here. Don’t leave off any exotics though….
Race 11
12 – Orra Moor – draws outside in a big field but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. Both career starts have been stalking affairs, and I think she gets a similar shot in here.
11 – Always Shopping – another outside stalker, also for Pletcher. Franco stays on and I think the one-turn mile sets it up nice for both as they can’t get hung wide more than once.
2 – Espresso Shot – steps up in class but the last two have been ultra-sharp. The inside draw should help her get into position early, and she might not have a ton of speed running with here until the turn.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 3/2/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Week 16 (2/23) – 9: 1-1-1, -65% ROI ($18 wagered, $6.30 returned)
- Week 17 (3/2) – 8: 2-2-2, -13.8% ROI ($16 wagered, $13.80 returned)
- Total: 154: 35-29-15, -19.1% ROI ($308 wagered, $249.20 returned)
- Win Rate = 22.7%
- ITM Rate = 51.2%