GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 487: 114-94-83, -18.2% ($974 wagered, $797.20 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.4%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.8%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
TOTAL: 39: 9-6-9, -18.2% ROI ($78 wagered, $59.20 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
Race 1
6 – Sharp Starr – there’s a tough entry in here that will surely take the money, but in a baby race with inexperienced runners I think I’ll take a shot with the outside horse going out for the first time for the DePaz barn. She ships in off a very nice work-tab at Pimlico and the barn does well with first-time dirt sprinters. 6-1-5
Race 2
2 – Sliding Spring – hasn’t been seen on the dirt in quite some time but he’s been in the trifecta in each of his last five starts across three different barns and I think a nice stalking trip is in order this afternoon. It’s a light trainer angle and he’ll get his fifth different rider in as many tries, but the price will be very fair and the speed figures are there to suggest an upward move is possible if the pace gets hot up front. 2-7-1
Race 3
2 – Imperio D – Rudy sends out this one for his fourth career try with none of the first three resulting in anything of note. I do like how he showed early zip in the last appearance (before fading), and he adds blinkers for the first time today (20% win rate for the barn). Betting that he breaks clean, finds the lead and has enough left to wire them. 2-4-5
Race 4
5 – Shamrock Kid – didn’t like the sloppy track last-out, but stretches back out to a mile here and has fared very well in similar conditions in the previous two. He’s only missed the triple once in seven career Aqueduct starts and sports a very impressive 6: 3-0-2 record at today’s distance. Wants the pace to get hot for a pounce opportunity, and the price should be very fair. 5-6-2
Race 5
9 – Leap to Glory – faced tougher foes in the last two tries at Fingerlakes, and paid the price accordingly with two lackluster defeats. Back into his comfortable surroundings here today and draws the nice outside slot with all the other speed to his inside. He’s done well locally in his seven career starts and holds five wins at the distance, and I love his chances to take them wire to wire, especially with a presumed favorite (#3) going our for a barn that is 0-17 with runners second-off the 180 day break. 9-2-3
Race 6
14 – Quest for Fire – ok so he hasn’t won a race since March 2018, he draws the 14 hole here and he’s 0 for 3 in his career at today’s distance…. but this is a bad field and he has the speed figures to win in here. I like that he always sniffs the wire and never gets beat by much, and at a juicy price why not today? Should be near the pace, and I don’t see why he won’t have a big shot in the lane. 14-9-7
Race 7
2 – Bustin Shout – another Fingerlakes shipper who always gives a good account of himself (8: 3-2-1), and should get the jump on this group from the gate if he so chooses. He was rated in the last try and almost got home, but the sloppy track likely made that task more difficult than it will be today. There is speed in this field so he certainly could be a victim of a hot early pace, but if we get anything near the ML I think he has as good a chance as the others and has proven it before in both state-bred races and open company. 2-8-6
Race 8
5 – Backsideofthemoon – this guy loves the Big A (14: 4-3-3) and goes out first off the claim for trainer Robert Klesaris, who can be dangerous in spots like this. There are two big favorites (#’s 2 and 4) who will also show big early speed, and with enough pressure from a few others in here I think our top pick will sit a dream stalking trip with top pilot Lezcano in the irons. The win at a mile locally two back is the repeat performance we’re looking for, and I have no concerns about the added distance considering he’s 5: 1-1-1 in his career going the 1 & 1/8th. 5-4-7.
Race 9
6 – The New Miami – a truly horrifying race to handicap with no viable options to make a confident wager, I landed on the second-time starter for Gary Gullo. The first try was marred by a bad break and he never really got comfortable, so I’m hoping he finds a better path today and gets home at a modest price. A spread leg in the late pick 5 for sure. 6-5-10.
Have a great Saturday everyone!