Well, we’ve done it… we’ve survived another Aqueduct winter and can gleefully look forward to the short move to Elmont in a few days. Let’s take one last crack at the Big A, albeit in questionable conditions. We came somewhat close to cracking a flat-bet profit (with our top selection ONLY, a sore topic for me when seeing some other stats posted out there) for the 20+ weeks that we analyzed the card, but ultimately came up short. That being said, let’s try to end the meet on a high note and cash some tickets.
Today’s card will likely be contested over a sloppy track, and we’re assuming (as of 10:30pm Saturday) that we’ll be off the turf as well. All selections are leaned towards wet-track performance (or lack thereof).
Race 1
1 – I’m an Ocala Dude – relishes the distance, draws inside and shows speed on the drop back to claiming company for the Nevin barn. Wet-track should be fine.
5 – Still Krz – will flash speed from the outside and drops in for a tag in his second try for the Rodriguez barn.
4 – Big Bella Brown – 5 for 6 on a wet track and 12 for 18 ITM lifetime for a horse that will certainly be a big price here.
Race 2
5 – Internet of Things – debuted at Saratoga last August and makes the second start today for Chad Brown. Last two works are sharp and Irad takes the mount. Watch out.
1 – Invest – Franco will give it a third crack today after two second-place finishes to start the career. If he can break clean and settle, will be a tough out in the lane.
2 – Bears Mafia – 3 for 5 ITM in the young career, and the first start for Bruce Levine was solid coming off the pace at 6F. Let’s see if the switch back to the mile is the trick?
Race 3
6 – Run for Boston – I like this one on turf or the main track, as the numbers are good on both. Finally broke the maiden in the last start and comes back to face a manageable winners here. Likes the wet track if that’s what we get, and should sit a nice stalking trip.
9 – Stormy Justin – the likely favorite should sit outside off the pace as he returns to the site of his lone win. The slop try was brutal, so this is a scratch candidate unfortunately.
7 – Ten Twenty Nine – boring pick taking the main-track only 7/5 shot, but he’s 15 for 29 ITM lifetime and has every chance here.
Race 4
7 – Parlapiano – clearly the class of this field; should stalk from the outside, if not on the lead alone, and I expect an easy win here.
5 – Tequila Sunday – as I type this, a very good friend of mine is enjoying an aggressive Tequila Friday in parts unknown. The wet-track record (9:1-2-0) and the 6-1 ML is attractive, but coincidence is ruling the exacta pick here.
3 – Claire’s Kitty – though the spelling is off, the aforementioned tequila enthusiast has a better half that shares a name with my third selection. Irad takes the mount and should put her into the race early, and maybe I make my friends’ day with a hefty trifecta play?
Race 5
4 – Candygram – looks like the lone-speed in here and with a good break will likely sit alone on the lead. Manny Franco takes care of the rest, albeit at a short price.
1 – Shadow Rider – 5 for 8 ITM on a wet track, draws the rail and should sit a nice stalking trip despite the leader likely being alone up front.
5 – Hero’s Welcome – sports the best three speed figures in the field, but I think my top two picks could get the jump on him in a race that doesn’t show much speed on paper. Chalk-fest in here.
Race 6
1 – Tybalt – stalker always seems to fire and the pace could give him a nice set-up today. I was at Monmouth the day of the Tyro Stakes last August, and he couldn’t have had a worse trip after stumbling out of the gate but still ran on for second. Trying turf for the first time here, so let’s see him get a clean trip and pounce at a nice price. If this comes off, he’s 3 for 3 ITM on wet tracks as well.
3 – Forty Under – will show speed from the inside as, likely grabbing the early lead. He’s 2 for 2 at the distance and Franco rides for a barn that’s having an excellent meet.
8 – Five Star General – if my second choice isn’t on the lead it’s likely because Bravo sent this one flying from the outside slot. Has a wet-track win if we’re off the turf.
Race 7
9 – Minsky Moment – coming off the LONNNNNGGGGG layoff, but still a boring pick here. He’s 7 for 7 ITM lifetime for Chad Brown and has shown the versatility needed to adapt to different pace scnearios. If he’s fresh, he’s one of the best in here.
3 – Turbulence – if he runs, the last effort at a mile was ultra-sharp and he should be able to hang with this bunch today.
8 – Nutzforboltz – makes the firs start since November but the figures are consistent and the works are sharp. Wet track and the stretch-out could aide the chances.
Race 8
5 – Newly Minted – chalk-fest today huh? Can’t try to beat her in this spot, as she was spectacular in the debut over a sloppy track and should get the same today. Coming back in a week is something Linda Rice does from time to time, and today I view it as a positive with a horse this young. Loaded.
9 – Bangle Gal – closed from the clouds in the Keenland debut, but was wide the whole way and likely doesn’t want that set-up again. Franco takes over, let’s see if she’s in the race a little earlier today from the outside slot.
8 – Stonesintheroad – will certainly challenge my top pick on the front-end, and the Big A has been very kind to her thus far, but the last race showed a little pace vulnerability and I think a similar fade could occur today at a short price.
Race 9
11 – Thorny Tale – has ran into the 8 in the last two starts with no luck, but the efforts were still solid and I think the pace quickens just enough today to give him a live shot stalking from the outside. Weaver hits at 22% off this layoff and gets the big jockey upgrade to Franco. 9-2 looks like a nice price to me as well.
8 – Blindwillie McTell – the presumed favorite has won his last two and looks tough in here today as well. I do think there’s enough speed in this big field to push him a bit more on the front-end, but he should be able to put them away and have enough for the drive to hold the exacta spot (or win by 8 lengths).
4 – Bankit – tried the Derby trail in Louisiana and Arkansas to no avail, but showed a nice work at Churchill 4/14 before shipping in for this. The closing style should work nicely for a piece here.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 4/13/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Week 16 (2/23) – 9: 1-1-1, -65% ROI ($18 wagered, $6.30 returned)
- Week 17 (3/2) – 8: 2-2-2, -13.8% ROI ($16 wagered, $13.80 returned)
- Week 18 (3/9) – 11: 2-3-2, -30.5% ROI ($22 wagered, $15.30 returned)
- Week 19 (3/23) – 9: 5-1-1, 72.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $31.10 returned)
- Week 20 (4/6) – 11: 2-1-4, -44% ROI ($22 wagered, $12.30 returned)
- Week 21 (4/13) – 8: 2-1-1, -48.8% ROI ($16 wagered, $8.20 returned)
- Total: 193: 46-35-23, -18.1% ROI ($386 wagered, $316.10 returned)
- Win Rate = 23.8%
- ITM Rate = 53.8%