Tampa Bay Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, January 6, 2019, by Jimmy Moore

Race 1

3-5-6

(3) Sacred Canyon – Looks like something went amiss in her last race and was given a little over four months off, Justin Johns bringing back horses off 90-180 days is 36%W, 71% ITM with 4.61 ROI so he does good work with horses coming off layoff. If this 8 year old mare comes back running as she did last summer she will be too tough for this group.

(5) Clouded Appeal – She has been a consistent type and might be the best of the rest if Canyon doesn’t come back running.

(6) Dynamonds Forever – She has no early speed and has found herself running on for 2nd or 3rd in 24/60 races, she may be able to get in the money here to spice up the tri a little at 20/1 ML.

Race 2

6-3-4

(6) Prospective Belle – Versatile filly who has ran well on turf and dirt, was outran early last time on turf but hopefully can stay a little closer today and usually finishes well. Gets a little drop in claiming price today and in a race that looks wide open should be a decent price.

(3) Sunset Empire – The Bennett barn is winning at a 31% clip this meet. She should be part of the early pace and is looks to be the horse to beat here.

(4) Fun and Games – Took a N2L here just 9 days ago for new trainer, a repeat effort puts her right in the mix.

Race 3

3-5-7

(3) My Computer – Taking a slight drop and cutback in distance, unless one of the 1st timers shows some speed will probably grab the lead again today and will try to hang on late.

(5) Sir Jack – Shown big improvement since switching trainers two back.

(7) Pinchot – 1st Time Starter, three of four siblings that made it to the track ran beyers of 66 or better. Will probably end up on turf soon, both Sire and Dam did their best running on turf.

Race 4

6-5-4

(6) Nora’s Drama – She might be a little better at 5- 5 ½ but in a race with not a lot of early speed this filly looks to be lone speed and draws the services of Centeno and a hot barn. First time in for a tag.

(5) Don’t Charge It – Coming off a 3 month break and might be using this one to stretch out to a mile in next but has ran competitive speed figures and usually finishes well.

(4) Cape Laa Di Da – Wildcard of the race, she scratched out of an Allowance Race on the Turf yesterday to try the dirt today for her new connections. The breeding looks all turf, will be running late if she takes to the surface.

Race 5

2-4-5

(2) Viva Vegas – Trainer Correas had a very nice 2018, this will be her first start under him after competing in four straight graded stakes races. Looks to be training well and is 3/4 on the turf at Tampa.

(4) Ruby Love – Lightly raced mare has had trouble staying healthy, Delacour does very well with horses coming off longer layoffs so this one should be ready to run.

(5) She’s Pretty Lucky – Her only wins have come on dirt but has ran competitive in three graded stakes races on the turf.

Race 6

7-2-1

(7) Sammy’s Mineshaft – Last couple of races he dueled for lead on a hot pace and had nothing left for the finish, gets a little drop in class today and should be a decent price.

(2) Jersey Street –  Gonzalez is 50% ITM first off the claim, will be stretching out to the 7f distance for the first time and has been running competitive speed numbers for this group.

(1) Purimeter – In what looks to be a closely matched race on paper I wouldn’t want to take this horse as the favorite, will be first time with trainer and first visit to Tampa for Purimeter.

Race 7

5-7-8

(5) Third Edition – In a race where I am not crazy about any of the horses with experience I will give a shot to a first time starter. Chad Brown has great numbers with first time starters on the turf but is winless in five tries at Tampa. I know the sample is real small but I will give the other first time starter a chance here. He is a full to My Afleet who earned 360k.

(7) Thomond Park – Clement is having a good meet, it appears they give this horse a little winter break, should come back fresh and picks up the hot riding Camacho.

(8) Umbrage – The first race looks ugly on paper but getting the extra distance today and a chance to get on turf could make a big difference and should be a nice price, the 250k purchase price seems to say he should have a little talent.

Race 8

1-3-7

(1) Go Away – Had some bad racing luck in last, the winner of that race came back yesterday to win a stakes race at Delta, with a short run to the turn should get a nice inside trip.

(3) So Alive – Hasn’t had a chance yet on fast dirt, should be the speed of the race. Looks like a two horse race and both will be short prices.

(7) Counter Offer – Wilkes must have liked the way he took to the dirt in his first try, comes back here on the dirt out of the same race as Go Away, should be closing late.

Race 9

2-1-9

(2) Peaceful Feeling – Went off at a little less than 5/1 in a MSW at Belmont in which the other Chad Brown won, this race didn’t seem to come up very tough so should be the one to beat.

(1) Ellyb – 360k purchase price didn’t show much on debut but gets on turf for the first time and gets extra distance today, both should help.

(9) Caira – Ran well here to finish 2nd at the same condition and distance.

Race 10

12-7-6

(12) Happy Lady – Broke through the gate early then when racing began dueled for little before folding, should be a decent price in a tough race to figure out.

(7) G Q Girl – Has been off over a year but if she can still run a little bit might be too tough for this group.
(6) Heir Time – Coming out of a race where she didn’t run any but if she can run back to one of the races in the fall she should be in the mix and will be a big price.

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