Race 1: 7-6-8
#7 ALPHA ORIONIS might be short odds but he’s the one to beat. This horse lost by a neck last time at the same condition going todays distance of a mile. Saez stays aboard. Has a bullet work in preparation for today’s race. #6 OUTSIDE LOOKIN IN gets the jockey upgrade to Julien after failing to make significant noise in his 12 starts as a maiden. Has decent form comparable to others here. #8 BAGWELL might be a good play underneath. If you toss his race in the slop off the layoff he’s been okay. Finished behind the #7 last time and most likely does again today.
Race 2: 4-3-1
#4 SEA SHARK makes the MSW to MCL drop for Pletcher who is about 50% with this move. Ran a game second last time after trying to take them gate to wire. I think he improves here. #3 QUIZZICAL CAJUN posted the best Beyer of the group last time at this level. Gets Gaffalione to ride. Live runner based on recent form. #1 NOON TIME GEM comes in second off the layoff making the big class drop. Has decent form otherwise.
Race 3: 8-4-6
#8 IRISH FIX had rough trips in the last two races and finished second both times. Horse has run well since the trainer switch to Simon. #4 TRULY COURAGEOUS hasn’t showed much speed lately, but could run well here without any traffic issues. This might be the appropriate level to break the nw2 condition. #6 MEGALIN CANDY scares me a bit with her 1 for 36 record, but might like the scenery change to GP and her form isn’t terrible to get a piece.
Race 4: 7-8-5
#7 MY PEOPLE SING faces this not so terribly difficult field for his first try going a mile. Showed interest with a few in the money finishes. #8 EL PLAYON will be running from the back and could finish well if he gets any type of pace up front. #5 THE KID IN SYD in my opinion will be over bet because he’s the obvious one here. His one and only start at a mile might be good enough to win here if he can run back to that effort. Gets a slight class drop today.
Race 5: 2-8-9
#2 MR. EDGAR looks to show some early speed and faces claimers for the first time. #8 SCRAPS has a few nice workouts coming into the race and gets blinkers off and a drop in class. #9 NO WAY NEVER makes his second start for a barn that’s good with this move. However, they aren’t good with the MSW to MCL move and the horse hasn’t run since July. I’ll try to beat this one, but still have respect.
Race 6: 6-7-3
#6 DEZZER had really good form until his last race in Dec at Tampa. His recent works make me think he’s healthy and ready for a rebound effort on the class drop. #7 DOC KANE worries me as his only two wins came on a wet surface. His Beyers are good enough and he’s dropping down in class. #3 DUBULL is an outsider here and has been running over his head mostly. He gets needed class relief and could be a threat late if he returns to his 4 or 5yo form.
Race 7: 6-1-8
#6 A.K. SAFARI must improve here against this tough group of maidens. I like the return to 1 1/16 and gets the blinkers added which is a 33% move for McPeek. Should be a big price here running against some big-name barns. #1 CLINT MAROON has proven talent and his first and only race on grass was solid. #8 BROADWAY D’ORO was a 700k 2yo purchase making his debut for Casse/Oxley. Casse is okay with first time starters and this one seems like they expect him to have some stamina based on works.
Race 8: 7-6-1
#7 ICE SHOW is lightly raced but ran good on her first try on the GP turf. 3 for 6 lifetime record. #6 A DIXIE TWISTER’s last race would be good enough to win here. Worries me that she was vanned off after her last race. Hopefully she’s ready today as she’s a prime win contender when healthy. Just not willing to default to her with the questions outstanding and a likely short price. #1 DAHLONEGA is in for a tag after many tries at the optional claimer level. Has a couple back class races that look good for this spot. Would have to run back to those which she hasn’t of late.
Race 9: 6-8-11
#6 MARCONI was purchased for $2 million and was a highly regarded early Derby prospect. He hasn’t raced since last April but Pletcher is good of the layoff and I’m willing to take a shot. #8 BURBON RESOLUTION’s only race off the board was in a G1. This horse has a bit of early speed and should be primed to fire fresh off the layoff. #11 FORTUNE COOKIE will most likely be a a price. Horse is in good form, likes GP and likes a mile. Good upset contender.
Race 10: 10-5-1
#10 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL should be odds on. Making a significant class drop and has solid form at higher levels. The one to beat. #5 LEMON BLITZ was 5-1 last time out against the same company, today you’ll get a way better price. The field isn’t terribly tough besides the favorite so I’m looking for value. Race 2 back to break maiden was good. #1 MICHAEL WONDERFUL gets a trainer change after a long layoff. Seems to like the mile on the turf.